Every winter, homeowners in the Hudson Valley and Catskills look for ways to keep heating costs under control. A common piece of advice is to drop your thermostat by a few degrees, say, from 68°F down to 62°F, to save money.
But does turning your thermostat down really make a big difference on your bill? The data says: not really.
Using NYSERDA’s energy price data for natural gas, heating oil, propane, and electricity, and three years of local Heating Degree Day (HDD) records, we crunched the numbers for a typical home that needs about 60 million BTUs of heat over the winter (December–February). Here’s what we found.
The True Cost of Turning Down Your Heat
For most Hudson Valley homes, lowering your thermostat by three degrees from 68 to 65 saves about 3% on fuel usage. Dropping it by six degrees, to 62, saves about 6%.
Translated into real dollars, that means in the 2024-2025 winter, you would’ve saved (not including delivery fees):
- Natural Gas: $890 at 68 degrees to $839 at 62 degrees (about $50 saved, does not include delivery charges)
- Heating Oil: $1,730 at 68 degrees to $1,630 at 62 degrees (about $100 saved)
- Propane: $2,300 at 68 degrees to $2,160 at 62 degrees (about $140 saved)
- Heat Pumps: $1,400 at 68 degrees to $1,320 at 62 degrees ($80 saved, does not include delivery charges)
For most people, the difference between keeping the house cozy, and shivering with sweaters and blankets, is worth maybe $50 to $150 across the entire winter. That’s not nothing, but it’s probably not enough to justify the discomfort.
Why Are Savings Small?
Heating costs don’t really scale down as much as people expect. First of all, your delivery and service charges are mostly fixed, especially for oil and propane, and they don’t drop when you use less fuel. Secondly, your heating system uses the bulk of its fuel to keep your home above freezing, so adjustments in the 60 degree range don’t do much to reduce the base load.
And most importantly, the biggest drive of your heat bill is how cold the weather is. Your fuel choice and system efficiency matter way more than the thermostat. The U.S. Department of Energy agrees; you can save around 10% on heating costs by adjusting the thermostat, but that’s about it.
Reframing the Conversation Around Home Heating
No matter how you heat your home, your costs are going to work out fairly similarly. Bigger factors include:
- How well-maintained and efficient your heating system is
- How well your home is insulated and sealed
- How cold it is
The thermostat can make a small difference, but not as much as these bigger factors. You’ll get more value out of having your heating system installed with care and precision, having it match your lifestyle and unique needs, and making sure that you get regular maintenance.
