The latest news from Albany is that the state Assembly and Senate have approved a repeal what is known as the 100-foot rule with bill number S8417/A8888. In short, the bill changes the common practice of natural gas utility companies in New York, who would pay to hook up homes to existing natural gas lines as long as they were within 100 feet.
From Washington, various versions of the impending One Big Beautiful Bill were poised to affect what are currently substantial ductless mini-split heat pump and hot water heater subsidies that defray thousands of dollars of costs.
The 100-foot rule change has not been signed by Governor Hochul, but it may. The federal heat pump subsidy of up to $2,000 has been repealed, and is going away for systems installed starting in 2026.
These changes may drastically affect the economics of getting a new natural gas hookup or a heat pump installation. If you don’t already have natural gas, depending on your specific circumstances, it could potentially cost anywhere between $3k to $10k to get a natural gas connection, and it’s possible that heat pump installations could lose up to $8,000 in federal rebates that are currently in place.
Here’s how it may affect different areas of the Hudson Valley:
Columbia County
Columbia County is largely a fuel oil and propane-heated county at this time, with 16,695 of the 26,098 (63%) households on either fuel source as of the 2023 Census. A mere 3,854 households are on electric heat or heat pumps (14%), and 3,473 households are on natural gas (13%).
Over the last ten years, these numbers have remained fairly stable. About 11% of households moved off of fuel oil and wood heating, moving mainly into propane or natural gas, with a smaller number of them moving to electrification. There had been a 3% increase in the number of households on natural gas heat in the last ten years.
Greene County
Like its neighbor across the river, Greene County is largely a fuel oil and propane-heated county at this time. 8,818 households are on fuel oil, and 3,092 are on propane, which makes up 65% of the 18,188 households in the county. 2,827 households (15%) are on electric heat or heat pumps, and 1,718 (9%) are on natural gas heat.
The largest movement in the last ten years has been people moving off fuel oil (-18%) or wood (-49%), and switching to propane, natural gas and electric heat pumps, respectively. Without the incentive for natural gas, more households are likely to switch to propane or electric heat pumps in the future. Greene County homeowners had increased their adoption of natural gas by 57% in the last ten years prior to this change.
Ulster County
Ulster County has a little more diversification of its heating sources. 44% of homes (32,856 of 73,105) are using fuel oil for heat. Natural gas is the second largest, with 21% (15,649 households), followed by electric heat at 14% (10,211). Propane brings up the rear at 13% (9,641 households).
The trends in the last ten years in Ulster County have been a move off of fuel oil and wood heating, and a switch to propane, natural gas and electrification, respectively. Many people in Ulster County are already on natural gas, so the hit on the affordability of this option may be more of a dilemma for local homeowners, who had increased their adoption of natural gas by 21% in the last ten years.
Conclusion
We are an HVAC installation and replacement company, not a political forecasting firm. We do not know what will happen in either Albany or Washington that will affect various rebates and subsidies, or when those changes will take effect.
However, if you are looking to secure the best possible deal, booking a heat pump or natural gas-related job sooner, rather than later will help you take advantage of the subsidies and rebates that are currently on the books before they are threatened.
