Here in the Hudson Valley and Catskills region, we can expect some rough winters. As homeowners consider different heating systems, furnaces or heat pump setups, a common question that comes up is about ongoing costs and resilience.
Is there one fuel source or kind of heating that is more insulated from price spikes, that has a predictable cost? In this blog post, we take a look at the last three years of NYSERDA price data on electricity, natural gas, heating oil, and propane, and see what patterns and correlations there are.
Before we dive in, a quick note: The price data we’re using here reflects statewide averages, but your actual heating costs can vary a lot. Delivery fees, maintenance costs, the type and age of your equipment, how well your home is insulated and weatherproofed, and even local supply conditions can all swing your real-world expenses up or down. Treat these numbers as a guide for understanding trends, not a guaranteed prediction of your bill.
1. A Look at Heating Degree Days
Heating degree days are a way of quantifying how much heating is needed to keep buildings warm and comfortable. It’s a metric that uses 65 degrees Fahrenheit as a baseline temperature; if the average temperature in a day is 40 degrees, then it’s considered a 25 degree heating day. Over the course of a month, heating degree days can be tallied up; in a warm month, the heating degree day total will be very low, and in the coldest months of winter, heating degree days can reach over a thousand.
This latest winter, for example, was very harsh. In December of 2024, we had 1151 heating degree days in our region; in January, it went up to 1,367, and then to 1,143 in February. That was a longer and more sustained peak than in the last two winters.
According to the National Weather Service monitoring station located in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, since 2022, heating degree days for our region in the Upper Hudson Valley can hit over 1,000 consistently in the winter. These are the months where the need for heating is at its greatest for homeowners.
2. Natural Gas Prices Go Down in Cold Weather
Let’s take a look at what happens when we plot the monthly average price of natural gas in New York State against the heating degree days in a month.
This chart, based on heating degree days mashed up with Monthly Average Price of Natural gas data from NYSERDA (dollars per thousand cubic feet) shows that when people need natural gas to heat their homes the most, the commodity price goes down. Gas heating bills in the winter are driven more by natural gas furnace usage and need than by price spikes. This can be attributed to long-term supply contracts for utilities, who lock in natural gas supplies ahead of the heating season. This does not account for delivery charges.
3. Heating Oil Prices Are Tied to Global Markets, Not Local Weather
For heating oil, you can see that the monthly average price from NYSERDA has been on a pretty steady downtrend since the price shock of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Even when demand spikes during heavy heating degree seasons in the winter, the commodity price has moved independently.
4. Propane Prices Are Seasonal
When looking at NYSERDA’s average monthly price data for propane, we can see that prices and costs do go up somewhat during cold months. If you use propane for heating, you may want to purchase some ahead of time to save some money.
5. Electric Prices Are Rising but Predictable
Electricity prices in New York have climbed steadily over the past three years, reaching around 25–26 cents per kilowatt-hour during this past winter. Unlike propane, which spikes when the cold hits, or heating oil, which can swing with global crude markets, electric rates don’t see big seasonal jumps. Instead, most of the increase on people’s bills from delivery and infrastructure charges, as utilities upgrade the grid and integrate more renewable energy. For homeowners considering heat pumps, this consistency can be an advantage: while the cost per kilowatt-hour has risen, heat pumps use energy far more efficiently than furnaces or boilers, helping offset the higher per-unit price.
6. Your Heating Should Fit Your Lifestyle and Home
The takeaway from all of this is that there is no “one size fits all” solution for heating. Natural gas is predictable in the winter, propane users have to watch out for seasonal spikes, heating oil follows global markets, and electricity costs are rising slowly but may be more efficient.
The real key is to match your system to your home’s insulation, your budget, and how much granular control you want over your heating costs. For some homeowners, it may bring peace of mind to lock in propane ahead of the heating system, or to spring for a heating oil refill when it’s advantageous. For others, it may mean dialing in heat pumps to be as efficient as possible.
Not sure what kind of heating is right for you and your home? Give Precision HVAC a call at 845-399-0669 and we can figure it out together.
